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New England Patriots
2025 season record:14-3, (o 8.5 wins), first in AFC East,lost Super Bowl LX, ninth in DVOA
Overview
All expectations were exceeded for the first year of Mike Vrabel's tenure in New England. The Patriots immediately turned back into a contender after just a few down seasons and now they have one ofthosequarterbacks who can be among the tier of players who will keep their team competitive regardless of the surroundings.
Drake Maye emerged as one of the league's best quarterbacks during his second season. He led the league in EPA per play at the position and was a close runner-up for MVP. Maye was second in the rate of "boom" plays that accounted for 1.0 EPA per play or more, while he also avoided negative plays and ranked seventh in "bust" plays that went for -1.0 EPA or worse. He led the league in completion percentage while he had the league's highest average depth of target.
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Maye's play made up for a running game that was 21st in DVOA and a defense that ranked 23rd. The Patriots have a path that can allow the other units to catch up to the quarterback and passing game, but they also have a path to contention just because the quarterback steps on the field.
Cap/cuts outlook
The Patriots have $39 million in effective salary cap space, perOver The Cap,the ninth-most in the league. New England could clear about $8 million more with the release of Anfernee Jennings and Mack Hollins. Mike Onwenu is in the final year of his contract and an extension would lower the $25 million cap hit he's slated to have next season. The Patriots have all of that cap space while still having 50 players currently under contract for 2026 — the top 51 count against the cap in the offseason.
Key pending free agents
LB K'Lavon ChaissonDT Khyiris TongaS Jaylinn HawkinsTE Austin Hooper
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Chaisson had a career resurgence in his one year with New England. He ranked 26th in pressure rate while he set career highs in pressures, hits and sacks. The Patriots were a better run defense when Tonga was on the field, sporting a rushing success rate that would have been in the top 10 for a full season. The 335-pound lineman also added a career high 14 pressures. Hawkins spent most of his time playing deep and came down into the box on 24% of his defensive snaps. He was tied for 18th among safeties in pass defeats, per FTN.
Positional needs
EdgeLinebackerSafety
The Patriots were 12th in pressure rate but often relied on the interior players to break through. Christian Barmore and Milton Williams combined for 37.9% of New England's pressures. Another 44.9% came from Chaisson and Harold Landry. If Chaisson leaves, just Landry remains. Even if Chaisson is re-signed, that doesn't leave a lot of depth behind them.
The Patriots had linebackers who could tackle, but they did not have ones who could cover. New England's top two linebackers ranked 55th and 65th in yards allowed per coverage snap at the position, among 96 qualified linebackers.
With Hawkins a free agent, the Patriots are left with 2025 fourth-round draft pick Craig Woodson and 2024 UDFA Dell Pettus at safety.
2026 NFL Draft picks
1st round, pick No. 312nd round3rd round4th round (CHI)4th round5th round6th round (KC)6th round (PIT)6th round (SF)6th round7th round
Good draft fit
CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
Allen can be the leader of the Patriots' defense for the next decade. He's good in coverage, good against the run, tackles well, can play inside and outside the box, and has just enough pass rush potential to be refined by Mike Vrabel and his staff.
Betting nugget
An easy schedule – ranked the third-easiest since 1978 by FTN Fantasy – meant New England was favored a lot this season. The Patriots thrived in that role, going 7-3-1 against the spread in the regular season. —Ben Fawkes
